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Showing posts with the label Risk management

FOMC Rates: What a Hold—or Cut—Means for Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar (Sept 2025)

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FOMC rate decisions have an outsized impact on global financial markets. Many investors are laser-focused on the next announcement. In this post, using the latest FOMC outcome, we’ll explain—in four key angles—how hikes or cuts affect our portfolios and what the rate outlook might be.   🎯 Key Takeaways ✅ What this post covers (3-line preview) ✅ How FOMC rate moves affect equities, bonds, and the dollar ✅ Why rates were held recently—and what’s next With the latest FOMC decision to hold the policy rate, uncertainty has increased. Investors hoping for cuts were disappointed. Higher rates raise corporate financing costs and can pressure stocks; lower rates can revive sentiment. Because the decision also moves bonds and the dollar, it’s crucial to anticipate the path ahead. 🔍 Why the Market’s Watching & Why the Hold At the July 2025 FOMC meeting, the target range was kept a...

Howard Marks on Today’s Market: Early-Stage Bubble and a Defensive Playbook

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Global asset markets have remained strong despite rich valuations. Howard Marks of Oaktree calls this an “early stage of a bubble,” warning that investors have slipped into excessive optimism. In this piece, we summarize the equity and bond markets using a four-stage analytical framework based on his key remarks. 🎯 Key Takeaways ✅ Asset prices are rich relative to fundamentals ✅ Early signs of overheating, reminiscent of the 1997 dot-com setup ✅ Use bonds (credit) as a defensive tool 📌 Asset Price Strength and Investor Psychology Marks assesses that stocks are trading above fundamentals. He points out that the absence of a severe correction for 16 years has led investors to mistakenly believe that "current conditions will continue." Such optimism is characteristic of the early stage of a bubble; even if a sharp correction is not imminent, it raises the probability of overheating. 📌 Comparing with the 1997 Dot-Com Bubble Today’s ma...

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: A Four-Step Guide to Differences and Investing

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“They say Bitcoin crashed,” “Ethereum is about to surge.” If you don’t want to be swayed by a single headline, start by understanding why these two assets were created and what roles they play. This article lays out the differences and investment takeaways for Bitcoin and Ethereum in a simple four-step structure that’s easy for non-experts to follow.   🎯 Key Takeaways ✅ Bitcoin: “money you can’t print more of” → digital gold (store of value) ✅ Ethereum: “middlemen in code” → blockchain operating system (usage & growth) ✅ Value drivers: Bitcoin = scarcity, Ethereum = utility 🔍 1) Where is investor attention? Bitcoin is now seen less as “speculation” and more as “digital gold.” With ETFs and retirement accounts opening the gates, it’s increasingly treated as a mainstream asset. By contrast, Ethereum is gaining traction as “Web3 infrastructure,” with real-world usage rising across DeFi, NFTs, and gaming. 👉 Core idea: Bitcoin’s appeal comes from scarcity ; E...

STRC Monthly‑Adjusting Preferred: $100 Par, Variable Rate, Monthly Payout — Explained

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STRC is a new class of preferred stock built around three ideas: monthly dividends , a variable rate , and a $100 par value . It looks complex, but the core concept is simple: the company can adjust the dividend rate each month in an effort to keep the trading price near $100 . Below we unpack the structure, pros/cons, and watch‑outs. 🎯 Key Takeaways ✅ Initial dividend rate: 9.0% annualized , adjustable monthly (paid at month‑end; includes rules on accrual/compounding). ✅ Par (= reference) value $100 ; management may adjust the rate to keep trading close to $100. ✅ Listing (regular‑way settlement): 2025‑07‑29 ; offering price $90 ; additional issuance via ATM may follow. ⚠️ This is not principal‑protected like a bond. Management can raise or lower the rate at its discretion, and pricing may deviate from $100 depending on Bitcoin moves, issuance pace, and market flows. Key monitors...

URA (Global X Uranium ETF): Structure, Outlook & Risks — 2025 Quick Guide

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URA (Global X Uranium ETF): Structure, Outlook & Risks — 2025 Quick Guide Last updated with data referenced within the past 90 days; figures may change over time. URA (Global X Uranium ETF) provides diversified exposure to uranium miners, refiners, and key nuclear‑component companies. With power shortages, AI/data‑center electricity needs, and energy‑security concerns intersecting, sector volatility has increased — making it essential to consider structure, outlook, and risks together. 🎯 Key Takeaways ✅ AUM ≈ $4.15B, expense ratio 0.69%, holdings 51 (recent disclosures). ✅ Top positions (subject to change): Cameco, Oklo, SPUT, UEC, NuScale, NexGen, etc. ✅ Flow drivers: restrictions on Russian uranium, Kazakhstan production guidance, Japan reactor restarts, among others. • This is a high‑volatility theme — quarterly/monthly returns can swing widely; risk management is central. ...