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Showing posts with the label policy risk

Korea’s Private Pensions & NHI Premiums — What Investors Should Watch

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In Korea, a renewed debate is brewing over whether to include private pension payouts (personal pension, corporate retirement pensions incl. IRP) in the base for National Health Insurance (NHI) contributions . For overseas investors looking at Korea, the policy trade-off sits between equity & fiscal stability versus protecting retirees’ disposable income —with potential implications for consumer spending, savings behavior, and the retirement market. 🎯 Key Takeaways (Investor Angle) ✅ Asymmetry: Public pensions have long been reflected in NHI calculations; private pensions have been effectively excluded—raising equity concerns. ✅ Policy signal: A bill under discussion would explicitly exempt small private-pension income—pushing the debate from principle to design. ✅ Portfolio impact: For households, timing/format/sizing of pension withdrawals and overall income structure will be key to contribution ri...

Jackson Hole 2025: Powell Stresses Data Dependence, No Preset Path

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Held every August, the Jackson Hole meeting is where you can glimpse the Fed’s true thinking. This year, Chair Powell mentioned cooling in jobs and growth alongside tariff-driven inflation pressures, stressing that policy is data-dependent , not on a preset course.   🎯 Key Takeaways ✅ Labor slowdown: recent average monthly job gains ≈ 35k; unemployment at 4.2% ✅ Growth cooling: H1 GDP at 1.2–2%, roughly half of last year’s pace ✅ Inflation: core PCE 2.9%; tariff-driven pressures hinted as “possibly one-off” ✅ Policy: rates not on a preset path → cautious, data-dependent adjustments; target is a “clear 2%” ✅ Markets: seen as “less hawkish than feared” → short-term rally in stocks/crypto ✅ Risks: political pressure (Trump factor) puts Fed independence in the spotlight 💎 Core point: With “no signal of fu...

Why Korea’s 2025 Tax Plan Rattled Markets — A U.S. Investor’s Guide

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Right after Korea unveiled its 2025 tax proposals, KOSPI and KOSDAQ dropped sharply. Foreign and institutional flows turned risk-off, while retail investors stepped in as dip-buyers. Below is a four-part breakdown of what matters for U.S. investors —whether you hold EWY, ADRs, or global funds with Korea exposure. 🎯 Key Takeaways (U.S. lens) ✅ Major-shareholder threshold to fall from ₩5B to ₩1B per stock (≈ ~$3.6M → ~$0.7M), likely amplifying year-end supply as holders de-risk. ✅ Higher trading taxes & corporate rate (STT up; corporate tax back to 25%) trim after-tax returns and raise the policy-risk premium. ✅ Separate dividend taxation could support select high-payout names, but eligibility looks narrow. ✅ Not final yet: political pushback and public petitions mean the package could change during National Assembly debate. 📉 Why the selloff ...