CORNYVERSE

Just as the market was settling in for the pre-FOMC quiet period, the latest retail sales data has thrown a curveball. The numbers for August 2025 are in, and they paint a picture of a surprisingly resilient American consumer. This robust spending report lands at a critical moment, complicating the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. The key question now on every investor's mind is: Will this consumer strength force the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance?   Key Takeaways ☑ Stronger-Than-Expected Growth: August's headline retail sales rose by 0.6%, significantly beating the consensus forecast of 0.2%. ☑ Core Strength Visible: Core retail sales (excluding autos) were even more robust, climbing 0.7%, suggesting broad-based consumer demand. ☑ Complicates Fed's Path: This data challenges the narrative of a cooling economy, potentially giving the Fed reason to delay any anticipated rate cuts and maintain a "higher for longer" policy. Th...

All eyes are on the August 2025 U.S. retail sales report, set for release today, September 16, at 8:30 AM ET (10:30 PM KST) . This single piece of data could set the market's tone for the rest of the week, and investors are asking one key question: Is the American consumer still spending? Here’s the pre-release forecast and everything you need to know right now. Pre-Release Cheat Sheet ☑ Release Time: 8:30 AM ET  ☑ Consensus Forecast: Month-over-Month (MoM) growth of +0.2% ☑ Key Factor to Watch: Signs of tariff "front-loading" in auto and furniture sales. ☑ Most Likely Market Reaction: A strong number could be viewed negatively ("good news is bad news") as it pushes back Fed rate cut expectations. What is the Forecast for August Retail Sales? Economists polled by major outlets like Reuters and Bloomberg have reached a consensus forecast of a 0.2% month-over-month increase for August. This would mark a significant slowdown from the strong gains se...