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Author: Cornyverse Last updated: September 26, 2025 | Reading time: 7 minutes 📑 Quick Navigation 1. August PCE Inflation Meets Expectations 2. Key Data Deep Dive: What the Numbers Mean 3. Strong Spending: A Sign of a Soft Landing? 4. The Fed's Next Move: What to Expect 5. Takeaways for Global Investors In September 2025, investors worldwide turned their attention to the U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, this report is a critical clue for the future direction of interest rate policy. The headline takeaway? Inflation is behaving as expected, but consumer spending is stronger than anticipated. This mixed signal complicates the Fed's calculus and sends a nuanced message to the markets. In this post, we'll break down the details of the August PCE report and analyze what it means for global investors, especially those monitoring ...

As the closing bell rings on Tuesday, September 16th, one word sums up the market's mood: anticipation . Wall Street spent the day in a holding pattern, with all eyes turning towards Wednesday's main event: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Let's recap today's quiet session and look ahead at what really matters for tomorrow. ☕ Market Snapshot (Close: Sept. 16, 2025) ☑ Today's Action: U.S. markets finished flat as investors paused ahead of Wednesday's big FOMC announcement. ☑ Key Indicators: The Volatility Index (VIX) edged up slightly, reflecting caution, while safe-haven assets like gold saw minor gains. ☑ The Real Story: Wednesday's expected rate cut is old news. The market is now entirely focused on the Fed's future guidance. In short, today was a day of quiet waiting. While the surface was calm, an intense game of watching and waiting is playing out as investors brace for the Fed's next move tomorrow. Recap: The...

Just as the market was settling in for the pre-FOMC quiet period, the latest retail sales data has thrown a curveball. The numbers for August 2025 are in, and they paint a picture of a surprisingly resilient American consumer. This robust spending report lands at a critical moment, complicating the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. The key question now on every investor's mind is: Will this consumer strength force the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance?   Key Takeaways ☑ Stronger-Than-Expected Growth: August's headline retail sales rose by 0.6%, significantly beating the consensus forecast of 0.2%. ☑ Core Strength Visible: Core retail sales (excluding autos) were even more robust, climbing 0.7%, suggesting broad-based consumer demand. ☑ Complicates Fed's Path: This data challenges the narrative of a cooling economy, potentially giving the Fed reason to delay any anticipated rate cuts and maintain a "higher for longer" policy. Th...

All eyes are on the August 2025 U.S. retail sales report, set for release today, September 16, at 8:30 AM ET (10:30 PM KST) . This single piece of data could set the market's tone for the rest of the week, and investors are asking one key question: Is the American consumer still spending? Here’s the pre-release forecast and everything you need to know right now. Pre-Release Cheat Sheet ☑ Release Time: 8:30 AM ET  ☑ Consensus Forecast: Month-over-Month (MoM) growth of +0.2% ☑ Key Factor to Watch: Signs of tariff "front-loading" in auto and furniture sales. ☑ Most Likely Market Reaction: A strong number could be viewed negatively ("good news is bad news") as it pushes back Fed rate cut expectations. What is the Forecast for August Retail Sales? Economists polled by major outlets like Reuters and Bloomberg have reached a consensus forecast of a 0.2% month-over-month increase for August. This would mark a significant slowdown from the strong gains se...

The much-anticipated August Producer Price Index (PPI) report has just been released, and it delivered a significant surprise. Instead of the expected rise, wholesale prices showed a slight decline, offering a dose of good news on the inflation front. This data is a critical signal for investors, as it directly influences the Federal Reserve's thinking on interest rates and the overall health of the economy.  Key Takeaways • Unexpected Drop: The headline PPI for August unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-over-month, defying forecasts of a 0.3% increase. • Positive Market Reaction: The stock market reacted positively to the news, as lower-than-expected inflation eases pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates. • Core Inflation Cools: Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also fell by 0.1%, further strengthening the disinflation narrative. • Fed Outlook: This report increases the likelihood that the Fed may feel more confident to consider rate cuts, pending c...